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Demand forecast for essential marine services

for Maritime and Port Authority, Singapore

The Challenge

The port and maritime industry is a key contributor to Singapore’s economy, accounting for 7% GDP. The Port of Singapore is one of the world’s busiest, with 134,883 vessels arriving in 2014 or an average of 369 vessels arriving daily. In terms of cargo, 581 million tonnes of cargo and 33.8 million TEUs were handled in 2014. However, the Port of Singapore faces rising competition from other regional ports, especially with Shanghai Port becoming the world’s busiest port in 2010.

The Solution

To enhance Singapore’s competitiveness and efficiency as a premier global hub port, we helped the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore build a demand model for towage and waterboat services, based on historical trend analysis on productivity and future vessel arrival forecast. The model came with a simulation engine that is able to accurately assess the vessel status in ports, identify whether they are navigating with tug assistance, anchoring for waterboat service, or in other irrelevant statuses, and thereby generate the statistics for assessing the demand for tug and waterboat services.

Working with Frost & Sullivan, we applied the model to ascertain the supply of towage and waterboat services and determine the optimal service level as well as appropriate penalty and incentive frameworks for such services.